The Other Trump Trade That Worries Markets

Robert Lighthizer, who was a huge influence on Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policy, is again a candidate for a top role if the Republican wins next week.

Donald Trump grabs a seated man’s hand and points at him as Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former top trade official, looks on and grins.
Robert Lighthizer, center, whose protectionist leanings were a major influence on the Trump administration’s trade policy, is again seen as a potential top official should the former president be re-elected.Doug Mills/The New York Times

As investors, economists and world leaders weigh the prospects of Donald Trump winning the election, one of their biggest questions is how he would potentially upend global trade.

Just this week, the former president told supporters at a Pennsylvania rally that he would pass what he called the “Trump reciprocal trade act,” and make the European Union “pay a big price” for supposedly not buying enough American-made goods.

Trade has become a key election issue, too, with Democrats arguing that Trump has done more harm than good to blue-collar voters. But are Trump’s repeated vows to ratchet up tariffs on allies and rivals — despite the potentially hefty hit to growth and inflation — a glimpse of things to come?

For clues, watch Robert Lighthizer. The 77-year-old was the top trade official in the Trump White House, and has been a major influence on his “Tariff Man” approach. This time around, Lighthizer — an international trade lawyer with a reputation as an aggressive litigator for his former corporate clients — has been mentioned as a potential candidate for Treasury or commerce secretary, The Times’s Ana Swanson and Elizabeth Williamson report.

Lighthizer has told money managers to watch for tariffs early in a second Trump administration, according to CNBC. Investors are increasingly worried about a new trade war, according to Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey.

Some companies are already bracing themselves. Timothy Boyle, the C.E.O. of Columbia Sportswear, told The Washington Post that the sportswear maker was “set to raise prices” to offset higher tariff-related input costs. Airbus, the big European plane maker, also said it was preparing for the possibility of higher U.S. levies.

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